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基于云物元模型的南京市雨洪灾害风险评估
引用本文:陈军飞,陈梦晨,高士佩,许建平,周沛.基于云物元模型的南京市雨洪灾害风险评估[J].水利经济,2019,37(2):67-72.
作者姓名:陈军飞  陈梦晨  高士佩  许建平  周沛
作者单位:河海大学商学院;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;江苏省水利科学研究院
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41877526,71601070,71433003);江苏省水利科技项目(2017060)
摘    要:基于城市雨洪灾害的形成机制和属性特征,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体3个方面构建城市雨洪灾害风险评估指标体系,并提出相应的分级标准。采用云模型与物元分析方法耦合建立了城市雨洪灾害风险评估的云物元模型,并对南京市2011—2016年的雨洪灾害进行风险评估,得到历年南京市的雨洪灾害风险等级。结果表明,南京市夏季的城市雨洪灾害风险都处在较高的等级,且南京市遭受高风险等级的雨洪灾害的可能性也在逐年增加。从改善排水管网密度、加强雨水蓄存设施建设、降低城市不透水面积、加大市政防洪投入和提升城市雨洪应急处理能力等方面,提出了南京市雨洪灾害风险管理应对策略。

关 键 词:云物元模型  城市雨洪灾害  风险评估  南京市
收稿时间:2018/11/17 0:00:00

Risk assessment of rainstorm disasters in Nanjing based on cloud matter-element model
CHEN Junfei,CHEN Mengchen,GAO Shipei,XU Jianping and ZHOU Pei.Risk assessment of rainstorm disasters in Nanjing based on cloud matter-element model[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2019,37(2):67-72.
Authors:CHEN Junfei  CHEN Mengchen  GAO Shipei  XU Jianping and ZHOU Pei
Institution:Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China,Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China,Hydraulic Research Institute of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210017, China,Hydraulic Research Institute of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210017, China and Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
Abstract:Based on their formation mechanism and attribute characteristics, the risk assessment indices for the urban rainstorm disasters are formulated from three aspects: disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment and hazard-affected bodies, and the relevant classification criteria are proposed. The cloud matter-element model is established by coupling the cloud model with the matter-element analysis method. The urban storm-flood risks in Nanjing from 2011 to 2016 are assessed, and the urban flood risk grades are also obtained. The results show that the risk of urban rainwater and flood in Nanjing is at a higher level in summer, and the possibility being suffered from high-risk rainstorm disasters increases year by year. Finally, based on the current situations of its urban rainstorm risks, the countermeasures for rainstorm management in Nanjing are put forward in terms of improving the density of drainage pipe network, strengthening the construction of rainwater storage facilities, reducing the urban impervious area, increasing the investment of municipal flood control and improving the capability of emergency treatment of urban rainstorms.
Keywords:cloud matter-element model  urban rainstorm disaster  risk assessment  Nanjing
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