工业废水污染与城镇化进程的动态关系分析

选取2003—2012年中国工业废水中的5类污染物,对工业废水污染物和城镇化率的关系进行库兹涅茨曲线拟合,并在此基础上采用3次指数平滑法对工业废水污染物的排放量进行预测。结果表明:随着城镇化建设的加快,我国工业废水污染物中石油类和铅的排放量呈现先下降后上升的趋势,但化学需氧量、氨氮和挥发酚等污染物却不符合典型的环境库兹涅茨曲线形状。预计到2020年,化学需氧量和氨氮的排放量将呈现负值,而挥发酚、石油类和铅的排放量将急剧增加。

Dynamic relationship between industrial waste water pollution and process of urbanization China

By selecting five types of pollutants in industrial waste water in China from 2003 to 2012, Kuznets curve fitting for the relationship between the industrial waste water pollution and urbanization rate is conducted. On this basis, the cubic exponential smoothing method is used to forecast the emissions of industrial waste water pollutants. The results show that with the speeding up of urbanization construction, the emissions of petroleum and lead in the industrial waste water pollutants in China first decrease and then increase, but the chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen and volatile phenol do not conform to the shape of typical environmental Kuznets curve. By 2020, it is expected that the emissions of chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen will be reduced to negative values, but those of volatile phenol, petroleum and lead will increase sharply.