技术进步视角下产业结构对工业废水排放的门槛效应研究——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

基于2000—2015年我国省际面板数据,构建门槛模型探讨产业结构、技术进步与工业废水排放之间的关联。结果表明:产业结构特征对工业废水排放的影响受技术进步的双重门槛效应制约,且当技术进步高于第二阈值时,工业经济比重的上升不再依托于更大增幅的工业废水排放;技术进步作为门槛变量,其在我国不同区域内的发展水平具有显著差异,东部、中部和西部的技术进步呈阶梯下降的态势;在其他影响因素中,人口规模、产出水平、对外开放程度等因素均对工业废水排放起显著的正向促进作用,而技术进步对工业废水排放起抑制作用。在此基础上提出健全科技创新体系、加大科技研发投入、构建跨区域生态技术补偿机制等对策建议,以期降低区域工业废水排放水平,实现工业经济绿色发展的目标。

Threshold effects of industrial wastewater discharge from the perspective of technological progress:An empirical test based on provincial panel data

Based on the provincial panel data of the mainland China from 2000 to 2015, a threshold model is established to explore the relationship among industrial structure, technological progress and industrial wastewater discharge. The results show that: The influences of characteristics of the industrial structure on the industrial wastewater discharge are restricted by the double threshold effects of the technological progress, and when the technological progress is higher than the second threshold, the increase of the industrial economic proportion is no longer dependent on a greater increase in the industrial wastewater discharge. As a threshold variable, the technological progress in different regions of China has significant differences. The technological progress in the eastern, central and western regions has a decrease trend. The other influencing factors such as population size, output level and opening degree all play significant positive roles in promoting the industrial wastewater discharge, while the technological progress inhibits the industrial wastewater discharge. On this basis, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward so as to reduce the level of regional industrial wastewater discharge and realize the goal of green development of industrial economy: improving the scientific and technological innovation system, increasing the investment in scientific and technological research and development, and constructing the compensation mechanism of trans-regional ecological technology.