| 海南省用水效率测算及可达性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 石晓晓,秦长海,汪妮,赵勇,何国华.海南省用水效率测算及可达性分析[J].水利经济,2018,36(6):26-30. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石晓晓 秦长海 汪妮 赵勇 何国华 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048; 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038,中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038,西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室, 陕西 西安 710048,中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038,中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室, 北京 100038 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划京津冀项目(2016YFC0401407)；国家自然科学基金项目(71573274)；中央分成水资源费项目(126301001000180014) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对最严格水资源管理以及水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动提出的效率指标要求,测算海南省预期万元GDP用水量和万元工业增加值用水量,评估用水指标的可达性。阐释了用水效率的影响因素,综合应用时间序列法和灰色等维动态递补模型,对2020年和2025年用水指标进行预测,并将现状年指标与国内外先进水平进行对比分析。结果预估2020年全省万元GDP用水量、万元工业增加值用水量分别较现状年下降27. 7%、36. 2%,能够达到国家要求的控制目标。这一结果为落实水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动提供技术支撑,对于海南省水资源优化配置具有参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 万元GDP用水量 万元工业增加值用水量 时间序列法 灰色等维动态递补模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/6/27 0:00:00 |
Prediction and target of water use efficiency in Hainan Province |
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| SHI Xiaoxiao,QIN Changhai,WANG Ni,ZHAO Yong and HE Guohua.Prediction and target of water use efficiency in Hainan Province[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2018,36(6):26-30. |
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| Authors: | SHI Xiaoxiao QIN Changhai WANG Ni ZHAO Yong and HE Guohua |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi''an University of Technology, Xi''an 710048, China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China,State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi''an University of Technology, Xi''an 710048, China,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China and State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the efficiency index proposed by the most stringent water resources management and the double control actions of total water consumption and intensity, the water consumptions per ten thousand Yuan GDP and per ten Yuan of added industrial values in Hainan Province are measured, and the probability of reaching the target of water use index is evaluated. The influence factors for water efficiency are analyzed. The time series method and the dynamic grey equal-dimensional model are used to predict the water use indices in 2020 and 2025, and the current annual indices are compared with the worldwide advanced ones. The results show that the water consumptions per ten thousand Yuan GDP and per ten thousand Yuan of added industrial values in 2020 decrease by 27. 7% and 36. 2% than those in the current year, respectively, and the national control target can be reached. The results may provide technical support for the implementation of the double control actions of total water consumption and intensity. Meanwhile they have reference values for the optimal allocation of water resources in Hainan Province. |
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| Keywords: | water consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP water consumption per ten thousand yuan of added industrial value time series method dynamic grey equal-dimensional model |
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