退耕农户长期生计分析

以陕西、青海两省4个县15个村400个退耕农户为研究对象,通过20年的成本效益分析,探讨了退耕还林对农户生计的长期影响,预测了退耕后林草产品的产出、价格和农产品产量,分析了样本农户退耕前后在土地利用、种植结构、收入和成本结构等方面的变化,对林草产品价格、退耕补助、毁林复耕等因素进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:在预测的价格和产出水平上,退耕提高了样本农户的收入水平。从长期看,退耕农户面临自然、技术和市场风险。要实现中国政府的生态建设目标,决策者应关注退耕农户尤其是退耕地比例高的农户的长期生计。

Long-term Livelihood Analysis on Farmers for Grain for Green Program

Taken 4 counties, 15 villages and 400 farmers in Shaanxi and Qinghai for Grain for Green Program as samples, the paper indicates the long-term impact of Grain for Green Program on farmers' livelihoods by means of 20 years of cost-benefit analysis. It predicts the output and price of forest and grass, the quantity of products, the change of land utilization, the structure of planting, the components of income and cost after the Grain for Green Program. And it does sensitivity analysis on the price of forest and grass, the allowance of Grain for Green Program, re-farming and deforestation, etc. The results of this paper holds that Grain for Green Program in the short-term has changed the land utilization, agricultural production and farmers' income in the rural areas in the west of China. And from the forecasting price and outcome, the Program enhances the income of sample farmers. In the long-term analysis, the farmers for the Program will meet the risk from the nature, technique and market. Main factors of the Program on farmers' livelihoods are the extents of land utilization, the long-term output and price of forest and grass. Decision-makers should pay more attention to farmers'livelihoods for the Program, especially that higher ratio of farmland returner, in order to realize ecological restoration.