生物燃料乙醇发展与粮食安全的关联度分析

从生物燃料乙醇发展与粮食安全的作用机制出发,认为燃料乙醇发展是通过要素的流动性在不同程度上影响粮食安全的。通过灰色系统分析方法将二者定量化,发现汽油价格和人口总量的上涨,分别对燃料玉米和人们直接或间接食用玉米需求量的影响程度最大,但都是在一定条件下才会产生粮食安全问题。政府可以通过对国内成品油定价机制和燃料乙醇补贴方面做出政策调整,来协调汽油价格上涨而引发的粮食安全问题。此外,假设短期内人口数量保持不变、替代效应为零,居民人均收入对直接或间接食用玉米量的影响系数最大,一旦产生粮食安全问题,政府则需要补贴低收入家庭,以保证居民整体福利最优。

The Associated Tests between Bio-fuel Ethanol and Grain Security in China

From the interaction between biofuel ethanol and grain security, the paper lead to the conclusion that the development of biofuel ethanol effects food security through factor mobility. Using grey system theory, the pa-per find that the increasing in oil price have the greatest impact on the demand of fuel-corn, as well as the popu-lation growth to consuming corn, under certain situation. Government may ease the threat above through adjust the pricing mechanism of domestic refined oil and subsidies policy of...