基于脱钩理论的广州市耕地消耗与经济增长总量评估

采用总量比较法的脱钩评价模式,设计耕地消耗与经济增长总量的脱钩指标及脱钩率,计算了1996-2002年广州市耕地消耗与经济增长总量的脱钩关系;研究表明,广州市耕地消耗与经济增长总量的脱钩关系极不稳定,先脱钩再耦合再脱钩再耦合;1997年、1998年和2001年的脱钩关系说明广州市在这些年份中用少于以往的耕地消耗产生了多于以往的经济财富,耕地压力大大减少,但在其它年份,两者未能实现脱钩,广州市对耕地占用的控制力度仍有待加强。

Assessment on cultivated land consumption and total economic growth in Guangzhou based on the Decoupling Theory

The purpose of the paper is to explore the relative decoupling relationship between cultivated land consumption and economic development.Decoupling theory,which reveal the essence change between cultivated land consumption and economic growth,is employed in the paper.Designs the decoupling indicator and decoupling rate,the paper calculates the decoupling relation between cultivated land consumption and total economic growth.The results shows that the decoupling relation of cultivated land consumption and total economic growth in Guangzhou is very instability,its status comes decoupling to coupling again and again.It is concluded that the decoupling relation in 1997,1998 and 2001 indicates the pressure of cultivated land is decreased,but in 1999,2000,2002,the relation is coupling,the government of Guangzhou has to strengthen the work in controlling the cultivated land occupation from rapid economic growth.