《日美贸易协定》对我国农产品贸易的影响及对策

本文在分析日美农产品关税、贸易和在《日美贸易协定》中降税情况的基础上,采用GTAP模型定量分析《协定》实施对我国农产品贸易的影响。结果显示:《协定》的实施将对我国农业总体发展产生一定冲击,日美相互减免农产品关税将带来一定程度的贸易转移效应,尤其对我国出口日本的蔬果和畜产品影响尤为明显。结合我国自贸区谈判和农业发展情况,本文提出积极推动多双边农业谈判、培育出口竞争优势、借鉴日本经验灵活处理农产品降税、利用自贸试验区积极对接农业国际规则等政策建议。

The Impact of Japan US Trade Agreement on China's Agricultural Products Trade and Its Countermeasures

Based on the analysis of the tariff and trade of agricultural products between Japan and the United States and the tax reduction in the Japan US trade agreement,this paper uses GTAP model to quantitatively analyze the impact of the implementation of the agreement on the trade of agricultural products in China.The results show that:the implementation of the agreement will have a certain impact on the overall development of China's agriculture,and the mutual reduction and exemption of agricultural tariffs between Japan and the United States will bring a certain degree of trade transfer effect,especially on the vegetables,fruits and animal products exported to Japan.Combined with China's FTA negotiations and agricultural development,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as actively promoting bilateral and multilateral agricultural negotiations,cultivating export competitive advantages,learning from Japan's experience to flexibly deal with the tax reduction of agricultural products,and using the pilot free trade zone to actively connect with international agricultural rules.