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| 区域土地利用结构变化及预测研究——以江苏省扬州市为例 | |
| 引用本文： | 孔伟,张飞,陈传明.区域土地利用结构变化及预测研究——以江苏省扬州市为例[J].国土资源科技管理,2007,24(2):87-91. |
| 作者姓名： | 孔伟 张飞 陈传明 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏,南京,210095 2. 华南农业大学公共管理学院,广东,广州,510642 3. 连云港市委党校,江苏,连云港,222001 |
| 摘 要： | 以扬州市1996-2004年土地利用变更调查数据为基础,对其土地利用结构变化过程进行了描述,并选取相对变化率指标,分析了变化的区域差异.运用马尔柯夫链的理论与方法,构建1996-2004年间扬州市土地利用类型转移的概率矩阵,预测扬州市2010和2020年的土地利用结构,并分析了其变化特征.预测结果表明:扬州市未来的土地利用主要存在:耕地面积将持续减少、城镇建设用地规模仍将继续增大、未利用地面积减少较快等特征.最后根据预测结果提出了扬州市土地利用结构优化调整的政策建议. |
| 关 键 词： | 土地利用结构 变化 预测 扬州市 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-4210(2007)02-87-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-20 |
A Study of Change and Forecast of Regional Land Use Structure——A Case Study of Yangzhou City |
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| KONG Wei,ZHANG Fei,CHEN Chuan-ming.A Study of Change and Forecast of Regional Land Use Structure——A Case Study of Yangzhou City[J].Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2007,24(2):87-91. | |
| Authors: | KONG Wei ZHANG Fei CHEN Chuan-ming |
| Institution: | 1. College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, China; 2. College of Public Administration, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, 510642, China;3. Lianyungang Party School of the Municipal Party Committee, Lianyungang, 222001, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the investigation data of land use change of Yangzhou City between 1996 and 2004,this paper describes the process of land use structure change and its regional differences with the index of relative change rate.The paper uses the theory and method of Markov Chain to construct the transition probability matrix of land structure and predict the land structure in 2010 and 2020,and analyzes the features of land structure transition.The result indicates that in the future the land use in Yangzhou City will take on characteristics as follows: the area of cultivated land will reduce continually,the scale of construction land in the city proper and towns will still be increasing,and the unused land will be decreasing rapidly.Based on the result,the paper proposes some valuable advice to optimize the land use structure in Yangzhou City. |
| Keywords: | land use structure change predict Yangzhou City |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |