基于DPSR模型的陕西关中城市群生态安全预警评价研究

针对陕西关中地区生态环境受规划驱动特征,运用“驱动力—压力—状态—响应”(DPSR)模型框架构建评价指标体系,通过过去关中地区生态安全存在的影响,来评估预测未来关中地区的生态安全可能潜在的影响,旨在为规划与管理部门决策提供科学依据。通过DPSR模型评估关中地区2011年、2014年、2018年生态安全演变特征,结果发现关中地区的生态安全状况基本都在向好的方向演变,且变化的幅度都不大。而单向指标表明西安市的生态环境发展更占优势。此外,由于DPSR模型能够较好反映规划对城市生态安全时空演变所起的驱动作用,且以规划控制指标作为评价数据源,便于规划及建筑专业人员应用,故鼓励将其运用于城市新区生态安全评价与预测中。

On Early Warning and Evaluation of Ecological Security in Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration Based on DPSR Model

In view of the planning driven characteristics of the ecological environment in Guanzhong area of Shaanxi Province,an evaluation index system was constructed based on the“driving force pressure state response”(DPSR)model framework.Through the impact of the past ecological security in Guanzhong area,the potential impact of the future ecological security in Guanzhong area was evaluated and predicted,aiming to provide a scientific basis for planning and management departments to make decisions.The DPSR model was used to evaluate the evolution characteristics of ecological security in Guanzhong area in 2011,2014 and 2018.The results showed that the ecological security situation in Guanzhong area was basically evolving in a good direction,and the range of change was not large.The one-way index showed that the development of the ecological environment in Xi an was more advantageous.In addition,since the DPSR model could better reflect the driving effect of planning on the spatiotemporal evolution of urban ecological security,and took planning control index as the evaluation data source to facilitate the application of planning and construction professionals,it was encouraged to apply it to the evaluation and prediction of ecological security in new urban area.