基于生态足迹动态评价的区域可持续发展研究——以地震重灾区四川省绵竹市为例

汶川地震后灾害链产生影响区域可持续发展的衍生效应。研究以统计年鉴为基础,应用生态足迹法分析地震重灾区绵竹市在2005—2014年期间的人均生态足迹、生态承载力变化情况及其与地震衍生效应的作用关系。结果表明:区域人均生态足迹对耕地、化石能源类生态足迹反映比较敏感,与区域产业发展特征相符;区域生态承载力结构不均衡、依赖耕地承载力;地震灾害衍生效应对区域生态可持续发展存在明显的影响关系。衍生效应对生态承载力的"侵蚀"作用与生态承载原生的结构型问题相互交织,绵竹市在恢复重建和发展振兴阶段生态质量一直处于人均生态赤字水平。未来区域发展战略部署应更注重灾害衍生效应背景下,产业布局、结构与生态承载力之间的互动关系,进一步优化调整产业结构和布局,提高生态承载质量,从而实现区域的可持续发展。

Regional Sustainable Development Based on Dynamic Ecological Footprint:Taking Earthquake-striken Area of Mianzhu County as an Example

Because of the derivative effect caused by disaster chain of Wenchuan earthquake,the sustainable development of earthquake,the sustainable development of stricken areas meets great challenges.The research uses ecological footprint model to analyze the dynamic recovery ecological footprint of Mianzhu County which range from 2005 to 2014.The results showed that:the change of per capita ecological footprint is sensitive to the index of cultivated land and fossil energy class,which match with the model of economic development and the characteristic of industry.The whole structure of per ecological bearing capacity is imbalance,relying on per cultivated land bearing capacity.Earthquake disasters derivative effect takes significant influence on ecological sustainable development of this area.Due to the"erosion"effect of derivative effect which is intertwined with primary structural problems of the ecological carrying capacity,Mianzhu city has been in a deficit of per ecology form the stage of restoration and reconstruction to the development of the revitalization.The development of areas should pay attention to the interaction among the industrial distributions,economical structure and ecological carrying capacity under the background of derivative effect to achieve the sustainable development.