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| 耕地保护规模测算方法研究——以湖北省为例 | |
| 引用本文： | 龚健,刘耀林,陈年山.耕地保护规模测算方法研究——以湖北省为例[J].国土资源科技管理,2006,23(6):62-67. |
| 作者姓名： | 龚健 刘耀林 陈年山 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学,资源与环境科学学院,湖北,武汉,430079;中国地质大学,武汉,资源学院,湖北,武汉,430074 2. 武汉大学,资源与环境科学学院,湖北,武汉,430079 3. 武汉大学,资源与环境科学学院,湖北,武汉,430079;湖北省国土资源厅,湖北,武汉,430070 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) |
| 摘 要： | 目前,土地利用总体规划中预测耕地保护规模,主要是通过粮食作物需求量来预测耕地的需求量,然后根据耕地的供给量来分析供需平衡,确定耕地保护的规模.测算方法存在方法单一、科学性不强、预测性不够等缺点,不能较好的预测未来耕地变化趋势.在湖北省土地利用总体规划修编专题研究中,为了避免上述方法带来的缺陷,采用了基于粮食安全需求预测方法、趋势外推法、剩余法和社会经济目标预测法等来测算耕地保护的规模,然后定性的分析各种方法的准确性,并分别赋予每种方法预测结果不同的权重综合确定耕地保护规模. |
| 关 键 词： | 耕地保护 规模测算 粮食安全 趋势外推法 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-4210(2006)06-62-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-08-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-08 |
Scale Calculation Method Study of Arable Land Protection——A Case Study of Hubei Province |
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| GONG Jian,LIU Yao-lin,CHEN Nian-shan.Scale Calculation Method Study of Arable Land Protection——A Case Study of Hubei Province[J].Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2006,23(6):62-67. | |
| Authors: | GONG Jian LIU Yao-lin CHEN Nian-shan |
| Institution: | 1 .School of Resources and Environment Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China; 2.Faculty of Earth Resources,, China University Of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China; 3.Land and Resource Department of Hubei Province, Wuhan, 430070, China |
| Abstract: | The arable land protection scale forecast in the present general land use planning is mainly through the grain crops demand.As it is simple and not scientific and the forecast is insufficient,the method can not predict accurately the change tendency of the arable land in the future.In the monograph of the general land use planning of Hubei Province,methods such as food security demand,the tendency extrapolation,surplus method and social-economic goal method are used to forecast the arable land protection scale.Then the accuracy of each method is qualitatively analyzed,and the arable land protection scale is synthetically predicted with each forecasting result being given different weight. |
| Keywords: | arable land protection scale calculation food security trend extrapolation |
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