| 淮南市耕地资源生产潜力及人口承载能力研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡成凤,刘友兆.淮南市耕地资源生产潜力及人口承载能力研究[J].国土资源科技管理,2006,23(2):9-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡成凤 刘友兆 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京农业大学,公共管理学院,江苏,南京,210095 |
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| 摘 要： | 在对淮南市历年耕地产出率变化分析的基础上,运用修正的AEZ法对全市耕地单产潜力进行远近期预测,采用灰色预测及相关模型推算出未来各类粮食作物播种面积.参考国内相关消费水平研究,得出全市2010、2020年的人口承载力,并针对提高全市的耕地资源人口承载力提出了主要政策建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地 生产潜力 人口承载力 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-4210（2006）02-09-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-31 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-312005-12-15 |
A Study of Cultivated Land Production Potentiality and Population Carrying Capacity of Huainan City |
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| CAI Cheng-feng,LIU You-zhao.A Study of Cultivated Land Production Potentiality and Population Carrying Capacity of Huainan City[J].Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources,2006,23(2):9-14. |
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| Authors: | CAI Cheng-feng LIU You-zhao |
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| Institution: | College of Public Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, 210095, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of the production rate change, this paper uses the correctional AEZ method to forecast the production potentiality of cultivated land of Huainan City, and applies the grey-model and correlative methods to calculate the planting area of the crop. Finally, it calculates the carrying capacity of population of Huainan City in 2010 and 2020 according to the correlative research of the level of food consumption around the country.Besides, the paper brings forward to some leading suggestions for enhancing the carrying capacity of population of the city. |
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| Keywords: | cultivated land production potentiality carrying potentiality of the population |
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