广西耕地资源变化与粮食安全分析

在详细分析2000—2008年广西耕地变化趋势及造成耕地减少原因的基础上,采用最小人均耕地面积及耕地压力指数等方法,对粮食安全状况进行了研究,同时详细分析了工业化发展所处阶段及经济发展与耕地资源变化之间的关系,并结合广西新一轮土地利用总体规划预测的社会经济发展目标,运用统计分析方法预测了2020年耕地保有量。结果表明,广西2000-2008年粮食生产处于供不足需的状态,且处于工业化初期阶段,其工业化发展及城镇化的提高是建立在耕地资源的占用之上。

Analysis of Farmland Resource Change and Grain Security in Guangxi

Based on an analysis of the tendency of cropland change and the reasons for the reduction of farmland in the period of 2000 to 2008 in Guangxi Autonomous Region,using the methods of the minimum cropland area per capita and cropland pressure index,this paper evaluates the grain security of this region,and analyzes the current development stage of industrialization of this region and the relationship between the economic development and the change of cultivated land resources.In line with the socioeconomic development objectives predicted in the new round of general land use planning of this region,the paper predicts the land quantity of the region in 2020 by means of statistical analysis method.The result shows that the supply of grain of Guangxi Autonomous Region in the period of 2000 to 2008 did not meet the need,and that the region is in the early stage of industrialization with its industrial development and urbanization improvement on the occupation of farmland resources.