基于不同Logistic模型的土地利用格局模拟对比研究——以湖北省宣恩县和咸丰县为例

模拟土地利用空间格局分布规律对合理利用土地资源、制定土地利用规划、协调土地与经济、环境的关系具有十分重要的意义。土地利用格局存在空间异质性,对比不同地区格局特征规律对加深土地利用格局的认识具有重要意义。以邻接的湖北省宣恩县和咸丰县为研究对象,通过对比基于局地因子、自相关因子和邻域因子的3种Logistic模型的模拟参数的一致性和异质性来对比研究两地的格局分布规律。实验与分析结果表明,宣恩县和咸丰县的土地利用格局特征存在共同的驱动因子和聚集效应,具有共性;不同模型的模拟结果表明驱动因子在作用方向,大小方面存在差异,邻域因子在邻域尺度上表现出不同特征。研究结果对加深理解不同地区的土地利用分布格局特征的差异性,促进区域土地利用的规划、土地资源的合理开发与可持续发展战略的顺利实施具有一定的参考价值。

Simulation on Spatial Land Use Patterns Based on Different Logistic Models：A comparative study of Xuan'en and Xianfeng Counties,Hubei Province

Spatial pattern of simulating the distribution of land‐use plays an important role in the rational use of land resources ,the determination of land‐use planning and the coordination of the relationship between land use , economic development ,and environmental conservation .Land‐use patterns have the spatial heterogeneity ,and the adjacent regions also have great differences .Recently ,studying the difference of land‐use distribution between different areas is always through a few of statistical metrics .Few studies are considered through comparing spatial models of different areas .Taking Xuan'en County and Xianfeng County as examples ,this paper described three methods of logistic model based on local factors ,autocorrelation factors and neighborhood factors for simulating spatial land use pattern ,quantitatively analyzing the relationship between land use types and land use patterns of driving factors through the analysis of comparison with the actual distribution .Through the ArcGIS ,CLUE‐S and SPSS softwares ,we selected four kinds of land use types to build models with Logistic stepwise regression for alternative factors by three kinds of Logistic model .We screened out the impact factors of land use pattern and determined the quantitative relationship and function between them .The results showed that land‐use pattern of Xuan'en County and Xianfeng County have the same driving factors and cluster effects .According to the simulated results of the traditional Logistic model and AutoLogistic model ,the main driving factors of land use pattern in mountainous area are the local terrain factors ,landscape ,urban road distance and so on .From the point of view of driving factor and ROC value ,the simulating results of Xuan'en County and Xianfeng County are different , showing that different regions of the land use pattern have differences in the same group of driving factors . Compared with ROC values of traditional Logistic model and AutoLogistic model ,the fitting results of the AutoLogistic model have been more improved than the traditional Logistic model .The reason is mainly that the restrictions of topography of distribution pattern of the same land use type in mountainous area are more closely linked in the space ,and density of distribution characteristics .ROC value of Logistic model of neighborhood factor is above 0 .85 ,which means that the effect is very good ,showing that the spatial land use pattern have the present agglomeration effect in Xuan'en County and Xianfeng County .Land using autocorrelation characteristics of cultivated land ,forest land ,construction land in Xuan'en and Xianfeng County are obvious and have scale effect . The research results have certain guiding significance and reference value on improving the expression of spatial pattern ,deepening the understanding of different distribution pattern of land use in different regions ,promoting regional land‐use planning ,exploiting wisely land resources and implementing successfully sustainable development strategy .