基于系统力学的煤炭固体废物产量模拟与预测——以四川省宜宾市为例

矿业活动在为人类生产生活提供有价值矿产的同时也产生了许多矿业废弃物,矿业固体废弃物的堆积会带来地表水污染、土壤溶蚀、地表景观遭到破坏、地质灾害等一系列环境问题。以四川省宜宾市为研究区域,运用系统动力学理论对研究区煤炭固体废弃物生产与处理情况进行模型构建与情景假设,对煤炭固体废弃物、废石与煤灰渣在环境型情景、当前型情景和能源型情景下的保有量进行模拟。结果显示,2017年煤炭固体废弃物保有量约是2005年的10倍,短期内煤炭固体废弃物的处理能力仍无法满足开采量快速增长的要求。废石处理方面,废石处理能力也有较大提升,煤炭剥采比有减小的趋势,但不明显。煤灰渣处理方面,未来几年,煤灰渣处理将有大幅度提高,环境型情境下的处理比率比当前情境下的处理比率高。同时,将系统动力学理论应用于煤炭开采与使用领域,通过算法对整个系统进行模拟,可得到良好且比较客观的结果。

The Simulation and Prediction of the Output of Solid Coal Waste Based on System Dynamics：Taking Yibin City as an Example

Mining activities provide a valuable mineral for human life and production ,but also generate a lot of mining wastes .And with the Mining accumulation of the mining solid waste ,it will bring about a series of environmental problems and geological disasters ,such as surface water pollution ,soil erosion ,surface damages to the landscape .This study aimed at simulating and predicting the volume of solid coal waste ,coal spoil and coal ash produced by coal industry each year in Yibin city based on system dynamics .The result indicated that solid coal waste volume appears a fleet increasing tendency which is at least ten times in 2005 by the year of 2017 ,and coal solid waste processing capacity still can't meet the rapid growth of production in a short term .In the aspect of waste disposal ,its capacity increases remarkably ,and stripping ratio shows a decreasing trend though not obviously .In the aspect of tailing reutilization ,reutilized volume will increase substantially during 2014 to2017 while reutilized ratio under environment scenario will be higher than current situation .