土地利用变化动态模型的比较分析与评价

土地利用变化动态模型，已成为区域土地利用研究过程中重要的系统性方法。基于不同研究途径、研究目的和不同分析角度的动态模型具有不同的建模机理和解释功能，动态的、基于过程的模型比经验的、随机的和静态的模型更适合于预测土地利用变化的趋势。建立在不同空间分析基础之上的动态模型在表现形式和分析能力上有其不同的优缺点。本文通过对其优缺点的分析评价，提出了建模的新思路，为土地利用动态变化的研究方法作出新的尝试与探索。

A Comparison of and a Comment on Dynamic-models of Land Use Change

Dynamic-models of land use change have been regarded as an important systematic method in the research into land use. The impel-mechanism and space relevance of land use change constitute the base of dynamic-models of land use. Different dynamic-models based on diacritical investigation modes, intentions and analysis angles have divergent mechanism and explanatory functions. It is suggested from a comparison and analysis of different models that dynamic models are more suitable for predicting the tendency of land use change than traditional, static and modified models. Dynamic models based on different spatial analyses possess advantages and disadvantages in performance mode and analytic capability. Through analyzing and evaluating these advantages and disadvantages, the paper expounds a few new conceptions of establishing models, making attempts in the research approaches of land use.