Optimal surveillance against foot‐and‐mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia |
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| Authors: | Tom Kompas Pham Van Ha Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen Iain East Sharon Roche Graeme Garner |
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| Institution: | 1. Australian Centre for Biosecurity and Environmental Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia;2. Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis and School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia;3. Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia;4. Animal Health Epidemiology, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra, ACT, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Previous foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks and simulation‐based analyses suggest substantial payoffs from detecting an incursion early. However, no economic measures for early detection have been analysed in an optimising framework. We investigate the use of bulk milk testing (BMT) for active surveillance against an FMD incursion in Australia. We find that BMT can be justified, but only when the FMD entry probability is sufficiently high or the cost of BMT is low. However, BMT is well suited for post‐outbreak surveillance, to shorten the length of time and size of an epidemic and to facilitate an earlier return to market. |
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| Keywords: | Australia bulk milk testing dynamic optimisation foot‐and‐mouth disease surveillance |
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