欧韩自贸协定实施对中国农产品贸易的影响

本文运用GTAP模型,就欧韩自由贸易协定实施对中国贸易规模、GDP、福利水平、农产品贸易结构以及国内农业产出结构等方面的影响进行了一般均衡模拟研究。结果表明,欧韩大部分产品实现零关税后,中国将会受到贸易转移效应的影响而出口减少、福利下降,中国的果蔬和畜产品受冲击较大,生产规模将有所萎缩。我国应调整农产品出口战略、加快区域经济合作、提高农产品竞争力,以适应面临的挑战。

The Impact of Implementation of FTA between Europe and Korea on Chinese Agricultural Product’s Trade

Applying GTAP model,this paper does a computable general equilibrium analysis on the impact of EU-Korea FTA’s full implementation on China’s agricultural trade scale,GDP,social welfare and agricultural trade structure.The results indicate that,the agricultural exports and social welfare will reduce,and the producing scale of fruits,vegetables and animal products will shrink.China shall adjust agricultural exports stratagem,expand regional economic cooperation and increase agricultural products competition in order to adapt the challenge.