新冠肺炎疫情对2020年农业农村发展的影响评估与应对建议

由于种养业季节性强、农民工流动性大、农村防护条件差,疫情对农业农村发展的影响具有全面性和持久性。研究显示,疫情防控导致的物流中断,家禽养殖企业遭遇生存危机,导致短期肉价下跌和2020年肉类供需紧张局面加剧;果蔬滞销、粮食销售延迟以及部分农产品消费抑制,将使相当部分种植户2020年收益面临下滑;疫情期间的延期复工和疫情后的长期停工会导致农民工就业人数下降205万人至351.1万人,2020年农民工人均工资收入名义增长速度可能将下降1.45至2.46个百分点。综合考虑疫情对各项收入来源的影响,2020年农村居民人均可支配收入名义增长速度可能将下降2.59至3.59个百分点。因此,应加紧建立应急储备和加大供需调节力度,以补贴和政策性信贷支持引导龙头企业帮助小农户度过难关,加大对农民工再就业培训和返乡创业的支持,多渠道稳定农民收入。

Impacts of COVID-19 on Rural and Agricultural Development in 2020 and Its Countermeasures

COVID-19 may have comprehensive and lasting impacts on rural and agricultural development in Chinadue to strong seasonality of planting and breeding industry,large mobility of migrant workers and poor protection conditions in rural areas.This paper shows that the threatened survival of poultry breeding by intercepted logistical system may result in fluctuation of meat price and expanding gap between meat demand and supply.Unsmooth circulation,delayed sales,and refrained consumption may lead to the decline of planting revenue.The delayed return to work during the epidemic and the prolonged business shutdownafter the epidemic may cause the job numbers of rural migrant workers dropping 2.05 to 3.51 million and the nominal growth rate of per capita wage income falling 1.45 to 2.46 percentage points in 2020.Taking into account the impact of the epidemic on various income sources,the nominal growth rate of per capita disposable income of rural residents may drop by 2.59 to 3.59 percentage points in 2020.Therefore,it is necessary to establish emergency agricultural stocks,enhance subsidy and policy credit support,and promote the re-employment training and returning home start-up of rural migrant workers so as to stabilize the income of rural residents.