基于Panel Data模型的土地供应量对房价的影响研究

研究目的：定量反映土地供应量对房价的影响及其作用机制。研究方法：计量经济学方法。研究结果：一年前的土地供应量对房屋供应量的影响是正的，对房价的影响是负的，两者在统计上都是显著的，但土地供应量增加对降低房价的影响力非常小。两年前的土地供应量虽然影响房屋供应量，但却不影响房价。研究结论：影响中国当前房价的因素非常复杂，增减土地供应量对调控房价有一定作用，但必须同时有其他工具的辅助，否则其效果很可能不够显著。

Study of Land Supply Effects on House Prices Based on Panel Data Model

The purpose of this paper is to make a quantitative analysis on how land supply affects house prices. Econometrics analysis and Panel Data model were employed. The results show that the increment of land supply last year produced positive effects on house supply but negative effects on house prices. Both of the effects were statistically significant, but the increment of land supply produced very little effects on house prices. Besides, the land supply two years ago produed positive effects on house supply but didn’t produce any statistically significant effects on house prices. These results show that house prices are results of complex interaction of many factors, so although measures of increasing or decreasing land supply can produce some effects, other auxiliary tools must be added as support for better achievements.