中国省际耕地利用生态效率时空格局演变及影响因素分析 ——基于2000—2019年面板数据

研究目的：探究全国大陆31个省（市、区）2000—2019年耕地利用生态效率时空变化特征，考察效率的影响因素。研究方法：超效率SBM模型、探索性空间数据分析法、核密度法、趋势面和地理加权回归（GWR）模型。研究结果：（1）2000—2019年，全国各省耕地利用生态效率范围由0.408~3.976缩小到 0.353~2.046，全国、东部、中部、西南和西北区域耕地利用生态效率均值均呈下降趋势，东北地区均高于全国水平且呈上升趋势；（2）31个省耕地利用生态效率在多个年份存在显著的空间负相关关系，效率高值区分布由西南方逐渐变为东北方向；（3）资源禀赋、经济发展水平、自然条件和生产条件均对耕地利用生态效率产生影响，但影响方向和程度在不同年份、不同区域有差异。研究结论：当前全国大部分区域耕地利用生态效率均呈下降趋势且分布不均，区域间存在较大差异，未来政府应强化相关政策工具应用、探索区域差异化路径、推动农户流转耕地和促进耕地规模经营，助推各地耕地利用生态效率的提高。

Analysis of the Evolution and Influencing Factors of Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Eco-efficiency of Cultivated Land Use among Provinces in China: Based on Panel Data from 2000 to 2019

The purposes of this paper are to explore the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes of eco-efficiency of cultivated land use in 31 provinces (cities and districts) from 2000 to 2019, and to investigate the influencing factors of efficiency. The research methods include exploratory spatial data analysis, kernel density, trend surface and geographic weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicate that: 1) from 2000 to 2019, the eco-efficiency range of cultivated land use in all provinces across the country reduced from 0.408~3.976 to 0.353~2.046. The average eco-efficiency of cultivated land use in the whole country, eastern, central, southwestern and northwestern regions all showed a downward trend, while the northeastern region was higher than the national level and showed an upward trend. 2) The eco-efficiency of cultivated land use in 31 provinces has a significant negative spatial correlation in many years, and the distribution of high-efficiency areas gradually changed from the southwest to the northeast. 3)Resource endowments, economic development level, natural conditions and production conditions all have an impact on the eco-efficiency of cultivated land use, but the direction and extent of the impact are different in different years and different regions. In conclusion, the eco-efficiency of cultivated land use in most regions of China is declining and unevenly distributes, and there are large differences between regions. In the future, the government should strengthen the application of relevant policy tools, explore regionally differentiated paths, promote the transfer of cultivated land and large-scale operations of farmland to boost the eco-efficiency of cultivated land use in various regions.