耕地资源数量与经济发展关系的计量分析

研究目的:探讨耕地资源数量与经济发展的相互关系和相互作用,以协调耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾。研究方法:经济计量分析方法。研究结果:(1)耕地资源数量与经济发展之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内却存在失衡,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到38.37%。(2)耕地资源数量对来自经济发展的冲击响应强烈,经济发展的冲击对耕地资源数量变化的解释水平达到50%;经济发展对来自耕地资源数量的冲击响应微弱,耕地资源数量的冲击对经济发展的解释水平不到1.2%。(3)耕地资源数量、经济发展均显著地受到自身波动的影响。因此,协调耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾,应采取长期而非短期的策略,要把经济发展质量提升、耕地质量保护与土地集约节约利用作为主要途径。

Econometric Analysis of Relationship between Cultivated Land Quantity and Economic Development

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship and interactions between cultivated land quantity and economic development,and to ease the conflicts between cultivated land protection and economic development.Method of econometrics analysis was employed.The empirical research shows that:(1) there exist equilibrium relationship between cultivated land quantity and economic development in long term whereas things are different in short term,and the range of short term equilibrium close to long term equilibrium is 38.37%.(2) the response of cultivated land quantity to economic development impulse is remarkable and the economic development impulse can explain the change of cultivated land quantity to a certain extent of 50%;the response of economic development to cultivated land quantity impulse isn't remarkable and the cultivated land quantity impulse can only explain the change of economic development to a certain extent of below 1.2%.(3) the cultivated land quantity was influenced by its own fluctuation,and so did the economic development.Therefore,it is necessary to take long-term measures to harmonize cultivated land conservation with economic development such as improving the quality of economic development,strengthening the cultivated land quality conservation and promoting intensive land use.