基于不同住房属性视角的土地供应规模对房价的影响

研究目的：基于住房消费品和投资品的双重属性视角分析住宅用地供应规模对房地产市场的差异化影响。研究 方法：理论分析、固定效应面板回归模型、门槛回归模型。研究结果：（1）上一年住宅用地供应面积增加 1% 可使当年 住房竣工面积显著增加 0.17%，弱于房地产投资资金对住房竣工面积所产生的 0.25% 的提升作用，该结果一定程度上 验证了住宅用地供应与住房供给之间存在生产函数渠道的影响路径；（2）基于实际房价与租金还原房价的偏离程度测 算，发现不同房地产市场投资热度下，住宅用地供应对房价影响存在双重门槛效应，门槛值分别为 2.05 和 2.92；（3）低 投资热度下，上一年住宅用地供应规模的增加可显著降低当年的房价，而高投资热度下则会起到推高房价的作用。研 究结论：住房作为消费品和投资品，存在不同的价格机制和供求规律。当住房市场以投资品属性为主导时，需求曲线 向上的刚性走势违反了一般的商品需求规律，供给曲线的右移将导致均衡价格越来越高。

The Impact of Land Supply Scale on the Housing Prices from the Perspective of Different Housing Attributes

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the differential impact of residential land supply scale on the real estate market based on the dual housing attributes of consumer goods and investment goods. Theoretical analysis, fixed effect panel regression model and threshold regression model were used. The empirical results show that 1)the increase of 1% of residential land supply in previous year can significantly increase the completed housing area by 0.17% in current year, which is weaker than the 0.25% increase from real estate investment funds. This finding corroborates the influencing path of production function channel between the residential land supply and the housing supply. 2)Under different real estate market investment intensity measured by the deviation degree between the actual housing price and the rent restored housing price, the impact of residential land supply on housing prices has a double threshold effect, with threshold values of 2.05 and 2.92 respectively. 3)Under the low investment intensity, increasing residential land supply in previous year can significantly reduce the housing prices in current year, while under the high investment intensity, it will increase the housing prices. In conclusion, housing and investment attributes of the houses have different price mechanism and law of supply and demand. When the housing market fully shows the attribute of investment goods, the upward trend of demand curve violates the general demand law. The right shift of the supply curve will lead to higher equilibrium prices.