房地产项目开发时机与土地闲置问题研究——基于34个大中城市面板数据的检验

研究目的:研究市场不确定性对房地产项目开发时机的影响,检验实物期权的关键假说,为破解土地闲置问题提供政策理论依据。研究方法:计量经济模型。研究结果:(1)市场不确定性每提高1个单位的标准差将使得房地产项目的开工量降低11.54%;(2)M2同比增速提高1个单位标准差,项目的开工量将增加7.20%;3个月央票利率提高1个单位的标准差,项目开工量将下降10.65%。研究结论:(1)市场不确定性的提高会显著延迟项目开发时机,验证了实物期权的关键假说,表明破解土地闲置问题,重在降低房价波动幅度。(2)政策因素对开发商投资决策有重要影响,间接地反映了货币政策对闲置土地调控的有效性。

Timing Sequence of Real Estate Project Development and the Problem of Land Vacancy: An Empirical Test based on Panel Data of 34 Metropolises in China

The purpose of this paper is to study the impacts of market uncertainty on the timing to develop real estate project, and to test the key hypothesis of real options, and to provide theoretical basis to solve the land vacancy. Method employed is econometric model. The results indicate that one-standard deviation increased in the market uncertainty reduces the new constructions of real estate projects by 11.54%. A one-standard-deviation increase in M2 growth increases the amount of new project start by 7.20%. A one-standard-deviation increase in 3-month central bank bills rate reduces the new constructions by 10.65%. It is concluded that the increase of market uncertainty would significantly delay the timing sequences of project development. The key hypothesis of real options is confirmed. The key to tackle the problem of idle vacancy is to lower price fluctuation. Policy factors have an important impact on the decision of project development, which indirectly reflects the effectiveness of monetary policy.