基于风险分析的缙云县耕地需求量预测研究

研究目的：从粮食安全角度，结合风险分析理念，进行耕地需求量预测，为制定政策提供依据。研究方法：运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法，以县域为例，分析人均粮食消费量、出生率、死亡率、粮食耕地单产、粮经比、复种指数、粮食自给率等因素的可能概率分布，对耕地需求量进行仿真预测。研究结果：得到具有一定可信度的耕地需求量风险区间值，其平均值与常规预测方法的结果接近，但比常规预测得到更多的信息。研究结论：通过风险分析得到的耕地需求量风险区间值比单一特定的值更具有政策意义，分析耕地需求量风险区间值，可协助分析相关政策措施的有效性，有利于土地利用规划的弹性管理。

Farmland Demand Forecast of Jinyun County Based on Risk Analysis

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the gross farmland demand that meets the requirement of national food security based on risk analysis. It could offer the references for related policy revision. Method employed was Monte Carlo Simulation（MCS）. Taking Jinyun county of Zhejiang province as a case, it analyses the possible distributions about food demand per capita, birth rate, death rate, yield per unit of cultivated land, ratio of grain to economical-crops, multiple cropping index, food self-sufficiency ratio, etc. A simulation of forecast for regional gross farmland demand is also demonstrated. The result of the study shows the forecast interval values of gross farmland demand with certain credibility. It concludes that the interval values obtained with risk analysis can contain more information than traditional methods and the calculated average value is closer to that of the traditional methods. Furthermore, the obtained interval values of farmland demand forecast can be a more useful reference than traditional single result for assessing the efficiency of relevant policies, e.g. for the managing the elasticity of land use planning.