城镇国有土地制度、土地投资与城镇经济发展

研究目的：考察城镇国有土地制度如何影响微观城镇用地主体的土地投资行为，进而影响城镇经济发展。研究方法：基于一个发展的两时期投资决策模型进行理论探究。研究结果：（1）具有“稳定性制度预期”的城镇国有土地制度能吸引微观城镇用地主体的土地投资，进而促进城镇经济发展；（2）在不完全市场条件下，随着城镇后工业经济的发展，残缺的城镇国有土地制度将导致微观城镇用地主体对其土地投资的“后悔效应”, 进而对城镇经济发展带来不利影响。研究结论：以城镇国有土地市场化改革为指向，完善中国城镇国有土地制度对吸引城镇土地投资存在直接且积极的心理预期影响，也将有利于促进城镇经济的发展。

Urban State-owned Land System,Land Investment and Urban Economy Development

The purpose of this study is to study how the urban state-owned land system influences the land investment behaviors of the micro-level land users, and further influences the urban economic development. Method is a two-periods investment decision model. The results prove that stable urban state-owned land system may attract urban land investment and in turn have positive effect in promoting urban economic development. Under the condition of imperfect market, with the post-industrial economic development of the town, incomplete urban state-owned land system would result in the so-called regret effects of the land users for their urban land investments, which brings out negative impacts on urban economic development. The conclusion of this paper is that perfecting the urban state-owned land system towards to market-oriented reform has the directly and actively psychological expectations to attract urban land investment and this will be beneficial to promote the development of urban economy.