住宅市场影响下的天津市城乡建设用地增减挂钩风险分析

研究目的：从住宅市场供求均衡的角度对挂钩规模进行判断，分析挂钩所产生的潜在风险，提出合理安排挂钩项目及进程的政策建议。研究方法：住宅市场分析模型和挂钩风险分析模型。研究结果：到2015年，加入挂钩产生的住宅增量后，天津市住宅市场的非均衡度为-1.77，导致挂钩资金平衡难度加大，引发政府潜在债务，延缓挂钩工作进程等风险。研究结论：对于以政府主导型为主的挂钩模式，要认真研究挂钩新增商品住宅开发的市场需求，分析住宅市场影响下的挂钩风险，合理安排挂钩项目以及进程，实现挂钩项目及住宅市场的双重可持续发展。

The Risk Analysis of the Increase and Decrease Connection Between Urban and Rural Construction Land Impacted by the Residential Property Market in Tianjin

The research purpose is to analyze the risk of the increase and decrease connection between rural and urban construction land via judging the scale of the project from the perspective of residential property market equilibrium. It aims to put forward policy suggestions on reasonable arrangement of the project. Research method is the market model of the residential property market and risk model of the increase and decrease connection project. Results show that the disequilibrium depth of Tianjin residential property market will be -1.77 by 2015. This leads to difficulties of capital balance in the performance of the increase and decrease connection project, triggering potential government debt, slowing down the process of the projects of increase and decrease connection in Tianjin. Research conclusions include that for the government-led model we should study the market requirements of the residential property, analyze the risk of the increase and decrease connection project, and ensure the project performance reasonable. They are the key for realizing the sustainable development of the increase and decrease connection projects and the residential property market in Tianjin.