1996-2004年中国耕地的粮食生产能力变化研究

研究目的:核算1996-2004年中国耕地资源的粮食总生产能力及其变化,为国家实施耕地保护战略和确保粮食安全提供决策依据。研究方法:以粮食作物审定品种的区域试验产量为基础,在确定充分发挥气候资源潜力的种植制度基础上,计算了各类耕地的粮食单产,乘以全国各县1996年和2004年各类耕地的面积,得到1996年和2004年各县耕地的粮食总生产能力,汇总出各农业生态区以及全国耕地的粮食总生产能力。研究结果:2004年全国耕地的粮食总生产能力为9.20亿t,比1996年的10.81亿t减少1.61亿t。研究结论:虽然与现实产量相比,中国的粮食生产依然有较大的增产潜力,目前粮食安全的耕地资源保障程度较高,但耕地面积大量减少所造成的生产能力损失不容忽视。中国未来粮食安全除了严格耕地保护外,更主要的是靠农业科技进步提高单产能力。

Change of Potential Grain Productivity of Cultivated Land from 1996 to 2004 in China

The purpose of this article is to calculate the potential grain productivity and its change of cultivated land of China between 1996 and 2004,which is meaningful for the government to implement the strategy of cultivated land protection and food security.The cropping system was determined for every agro-ecological zone,through which the potential climatic productivity could be sufficiently developed.Based on the regional test yield of the certificated grain varieties and the cropping system,the grain potential productivity of each zone was calculated.The total grain productivity of every county,agro-ecological zone and the whole nation was obtained by multiplying the potential grain productivity of per area and the cultivated land area in 1996 and 2004.The results show that the total grain potential productivity of China was 0.92 billion tons in 2004,and 1.08 billion tons in 1996.The total grain productivity of China has decreased by 161 million tons in eight years.Although there is large gap between the potential grain productivity and the real yield and high assurance for grain security at present,the quick loss of cultivated land is still a big threat to food security of Mainland China in the future.