中国大陆城市建设用地扩展动因浅析

研究目的：深入剖析城市建设用地扩展动因，为城市建设用地扩展问题提供政策参考。研究方法：在定量分析中国大陆城市建设用地扩展规模、扩展速度等问题的基础上，采用灰关联法测度了各因素的作用程度。研究结果：社会发展是城市建设用地扩展的主要驱动力，非农业人口增长是影响城市建设用地扩展的主导因素，交通基础设施建设是城市建设用地扩展的直接原因，经济总量增加和房地产开发投资并不是推动城市建设用地扩展的主导动因，而国家政策的不连续性、多变性和衔接性较差是导致城市建设用地扩展周期波动的根源。研究结论：在当前扩大内需政策实施中，对于交通基础设施投资带来的城市建设用地扩展问题应引起高度关注，特别要加强对交通基础设施沿线土地开发利用的管制，走集约发展之路。

Driving Forces of Urban Construction Land Expansion in the Mainland of China

 The purpose of this paper is to analyze the driving forces of urban construction land expansion in order to offer some policy references for solving the problems caused by urban expansion. On the basis of quantitatively analyzing the scale and speed of urban expansion in the mainland of China, the authors measured the effect levels of different elements through gray relational analysis. The results show that, social development is the major driving force of urban construction land expansion; non-agricultural population growth is the dominant factor;  transportation infrastructure is the direct reason; the GDP growth and the increase of real estate investment are not the dominant cause. In fact, the current discontinuous, frequently changed and inconsistent national policies are the root causes of the periodical fluctuation of urban construction land expansion. It is concluded that the urban expansion brought by current transportation infrastructure investment in the huge budget of central government which aims to enlarge the domestic demand for releasing current financial crisis should be paid more attentions, especially strengthening the control of the development and use of lands along the lines of transportation and other infrastructure projects with a more intensive way.