休耕政策实施的偏离风险、形成路径与防范体系研究

研究目的:探索休耕政策实施偏离风险新命题,客观认识休耕政策实施的偏离风险源与形成路径,以期为保障中国休耕政策推行的稳定性和连续性提供参考。研究方法:生命周期法、归纳总结法和逻辑推理法。研究结果:(1)基于生命周期发现休耕政策实施存在耕地权益、社会保障、实施组织和后续利用等偏离风险;(2)偏离风险源与产权界定模糊、目标定位差异、组织管理不足和激励约束缺失等密切相关;(3)休耕产权公共域、休耕主体行为空间和休耕负外部性形成了偏离风险的内在路径;(4)休耕偏离风险实现负外部性内部化还需借助权益认知体系、政策保障体系、组织管理体系和利用预警体系等外部规制与激励。研究结论:在休耕政策实施后续完善与推广应用时,应当考虑休耕周期内休耕政策实施过程存在的偏离风险,构建合理的风险防范体系。

Deviation Risk of Policy Implementation of Cultivated Land Fallow and Its Prevention System

The purpose of this study is to explore a new deviation risk proposition for the implementation of the fallow policy, and to analyze the deviation risk and formation path of the fallow policy implementation in order to provide theoretical basis for the stability and sustainability of fallow system based on life cycle theory. The methods of literature research, life cycle, inductive abstraction and logical reasoning were employed. The results show that: 1)the fallow preparation faces the risks of farmland rights and interests, implementation organization, social security and management based on the life cycle; 2)the path of risk formation is closely related to the ambiguous definition of farmland property rights, the difference in target orientation, the lack of organizational management and the lack of incentive constraints; 3)the internal path of deviation risk comes from the public domain of fallow property right, behavior space of fallow subject and negative externality of fallow; 4)the internalization of negative externality regarding deviation risk of fallow requires external regulation and incentives such as equity cognition system, policy guarantee system, organization management system and early warning system. In conclusion, the deviation risk in the fallow policy implementation should be considered and a reasonable risk prevention system should be established in the future.