中国建设用地扩张与经济增长脱钩关系及管控策略

研究目的:分析建设用地扩张与经济增长之间的脱钩关系,为新时期各地政府进行差别化的建设用地"双控"提供策略参考。研究方法:改进的Tapio弹性脱钩法。研究结果:(1)"十二五"期间中国建设用地扩张与经济增长呈现显著"弱脱钩"状态,经济增长对建设用地的依赖程度有所降低;(2)预测到2020年末各地区建设用地规模及强度,要依据4类脱钩系数进行规模管控,根据"优"、"良"、"中"和"差"4种等级情况的区域进行强度管控;(3)基于预测结果,从发展观念转变、经济结构优化、供地模式调整等多视角提出了差别化的建设用地规模及强度管控策略。研究结论:应努力促成建设用地扩张与经济增长"低脱钩"发展模式,各地区要因地制宜采取策略推进建设用地"双控"行动。

Decoupling Relationship between China's Construction Land Expansion and Economic Growth and Its Control Strategies

The purpose of this study is to analyze the decoupling relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth, and to provide strategic reference of the differentiated construction land“ double control” for local governments in the new period. The method of improved Tapio elastic decoupling is used. The results show that: 1)the relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth in China showed a significant“ weak decoupling” state during“ The 12th Five-Year Plan” period. The economic growth has less depended on construction land. 2)The scale and intensity of construction land in each area by the end of 2020 are predicted. The scale control should be carried out according to the four decoupling coefficients, and the intensity control should be carried out according to the 4 divided classes, containing“ Excellent”,“ Good”,“ Medium” and“ Poor”. 3)The scale and intensity control strategies of differentiated construction land are proposed based on the prediction results from the perspective of development concept change, economic structure optimization, land supply mode adjustment and so on. In conclusion, the efforts should be made to promote the“ low decoupling” development model of construction land expansion and economic growth, and the strategies should be adopted to promote“ double control” of construction land according to local conditions of different regions.