中国耕地非粮化空间格局分异及驱动机制

研究目的：摸清耕地非粮化的总体态势，揭示非粮化空间分异及驱动机制，为国家粮食安全和耕地保护政策调整提供科学依据。研究方法：空间自相关分析法、多重共线性诊断与多元回归分析方法。研究结果：（1）2018年耕地非粮化面积约为54.47×106 hm2，占耕地总面积的32.29%；（2）非粮化面积主要集中于中南部和北部，但高非粮化率主要集中于新疆、贵州和东南沿海。非粮化面积与非粮化率呈现显著不同的空间集聚特征；（3）农业实际利用外资额、城乡居民可支配收入比、农业机械总动力、乡村劳动力、土地流转面积与非粮化面积对数呈显著性正相关关系，共同驱动了全国非粮化的空间格局。但不同尺度、不同区域耕地非粮化驱动因子的空间异质性显著。研究结论：受经济、社会、政策和资源配置等多重因素影响，中国不同尺度下非粮化时空格局差异悬殊、驱动因子空间异质性显著。今后应科学设定非粮化底线、优化农业资源配置、推进农业差别化补贴，严控非粮化无序增长、稳固国家粮食安全的基石。

Spatial Pattern Differentiation of Non-grain Cultivated Land and Its Driving Factors in China

The purposes of this study are to explore the overall situation of non-grain cultivated land, reveal its spatial differentiation and driving mechanism, and provide a scientific basis for the national food security and policy adjustment of cultivated land protection. The research methods of spatial autocorrelation analysis, multi-collinearity diagnosis and multiple regression analysis are used in this study. The results show that: 1) the area of non-grain cultivated land has reached 54.47×106 hm2 in 2018, accounting for 32.29% of the total area of cultivated land in China. 2) The area of non-grain cultivated land is mainly concentrated in the central and northeastern China, whereas the non-grain areas with high rate are concentrated in the Xinjiang and southeastern coastal areas. The areas and the rates of non-grain cultivated land present the different characteristics of significant spatial agglomeration. 3) The factors, such as actual foreign direct investment in agriculture, the rate of disposable income of urban and rural residents, total power of agricultural machinery, rural labor forces and land transfer rate are significantly positively correlated with non-grain cultivated land, which drives the spatial pattern of the national non-grain cultivated land. However, the spatial heterogeneity of the driving factors is significant in different scales and regions. In conclusion, the areas and rates of non-grain cultivated land in different scales in China are very different, and their spatial distribution patterns are significantly different, which are mainly affected by regional economic and social development and resource endowment. In the future, the baseline of non-grain cultivated land should be scientifically set, the allocation of agricultural resources should be optimized, and the differentiated agricultural subsidies should be promoted, contributing to the strict control over non-grain cultivated land and the stability of national food security.