公路基础设施建设对耕地利用转型的影响及门槛效应研究

研究目的:探究公路基础设施建设对耕地利用转型的影响和门槛效应。研究方法:投影寻踪模型,动态空间Durbin模型和面板门槛回归模型。研究结果:(1)公路基础设施建设对耕地利用转型的空间溢出效应比直接效应更为显著,空间溢出效应表现为周边省份公路密度的提高会促进本省份耕地利用转型;(2)公路基础设施建设对耕地利用转型具有促进作用,主要是通过推动耕地功能形态转型实现;(3)公路基础设施建设对耕地利用转型影响存在单一门槛效应,表现为公路基础设施建设对耕地利用转型的正向影响呈先升后降的变化特征,并且当前公路基础设施对西部地区耕地利用转型的促进作用大于东、中部地区。研究结论:应结合公路基础设施建设现状,优化公路基础设施布局,提高公路基础设施建设促进耕地利用转型和农业发展的区域协同作用。

Study on the Impacts and Threshold Effects of Road Infrastructure Construction on Cultivated Land Use Transition

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of road infrastructure on the cultivated land use transition, based on the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2017. The research methods are as follows. The projection pursuit model is used to measure the cultivated land use transition, and the dynamic spatial Durbin model and panel threshold regression model are established to test the impacts and threshold effects of road infrastructure construction on cultivated land use transition. The results show that: 1)the spatial spillover effect of road infrastructure construction on cultivated land use transition is more significant than direct effects, and the spatial spillover effect is that the increase of road density in neighboring provinces could promote cultivated land use transition in local province. 2)Road infrastructure construction promotes the cultivated land use transition mainly by promoting the cultivated land use function transition. 3)The impact of road infrastructure construction on cultivated land use transition has a single threshold effect. The positive impact of road infrastructure construction on cultivated land use transition presents the change characteristics of first rising and then decreasing, and the promotion effect of road infrastructure on cultivated land use transition in the western region is greater than that in the eastern and central regions. In conclusion, according to the status-quo, the layout of road infrastructure construction is expected to optimized to enhance its regional coordinating effects on cultivated land use transition and agricultural development.