再论耕地总量动态平衡

研究目的:分析中国耕地保护政策和未来发展的极限状态,提出中国耕地保护新的思维框架,为国家制定相关政策提供参考.研究方法:反演思维法.研究结果:当中国人口达到16亿时,全国用于建设占用耕地的极限值大约在3.39×106ha～3.73×106ha左右.耕地总量到2020年将达到极限水平.到2030年人口高峰来临,尚有一定的耕地缺口.研究结论:变"耕地总量动态平衡"为"农用地总量动态平衡",变"粮食安全"为"食物安全",建立农用地总量动态平衡与食物安全监测与预警制度,从提高复种指数、增加草食养殖等途经保证食物安全.做到:总体控制,动态监测,提前预警,分区管理,统筹兼顾,逐步实施,整体发展.

Review on Policy of Dynamic Equilibrium of Gross Arable Land

The paper aimed to propose new framework for protection of arable land in china by predicting and examining the extreme demand for cultivated land in the future. Reverse deduction is employed. It is found that the conversion from arable land into construction land will reach the maximum of 3.39-3.73 million hectare when the population reaches its limit of 1.6 billion. The gross cultivated land will mount up to its peak before year 2020, and gap between supply and demand will inevitable when the population reach its limit in 2030. Based on these findings, the authors suggested that the policy should expand its core protection mechanism from cultivated land to agriculture land and monitoring system be established to ensure food security effectively guarded.