中国农地流转对农业碳排放强度的影响 及作用机制研究

研究目的：探明农地流转对农业碳排放强度的影响效应及作用机制，为实现农业碳达峰碳中和目标建言献策。研究方法：双固定效应回归模型、工具变量模型、中介效应模型。研究结果：（1）农地流转对农业碳排放强度产生显著负向影响，农地流转面积扩大会降低农业碳排放强度；（2）农业化学化水平在农地流转降低农业碳排放强度过程中发挥中介效应，农地流转主要通过降低农业化学化水平而降低农业碳排放强度；（3）农业机械化水平在农地流转降低农业碳排放强度过程中发挥遮掩效应（削弱作用），农地流转会提升农业机械化水平进而降低其对农业碳排放强度的减量效应。研究结论：农地流转对农业碳排放强度具有显著负向影响，建议通过加快农地流转、提升农业化学物资使用效率、推动清洁型农业机械应用等措施进一步发挥农地流转对农业碳排放强度的减量效应。

Study on the Influence of Rural Land Transfer on Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity and Its Mechanism in China

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect and mechanism of rural land transfer on agricultural carbon emission intensity, to make suggestions for the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in agriculture. This paper comprehensively uses the two-fixed effect regression model, the instrument variable model, and the intermediary effect model for empirical analysis based on the theoretical analysis, and rigorously tests the results. The results show that: 1) rural land transfer has a significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emission intensity, and the expansion of rural land transfer area reduces agricultural carbon emission intensity. 2) The level of agricultural chemistry exerts an intermediary effect on reducing the agricultural carbon emission intensity by rural land transfer. Rural land transfer mainly shrinks the agricultural carbon emission intensity by reducing the level of agricultural chemistry. 3) Agricultural mechanization level exerts a cover-up effect on reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity by rural land transfer. Rural land transfer improves the level of agricultural mechanization and then reduces its depressurization effect on the agricultural carbon emission intensity. In conclusion, it is suggested to speed up rural land transfer, to improve the use efficiency of agricultural chemical materials, and to promote the application of clean agricultural machinery, so as to further exert the reduction effect of rural land transfer on agricultural carbon emission intensity.