中国人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调发展的时空特征与驱动因素

研究目的：分析近20年中国地级行政区及直辖市人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调发展时空特征及驱动因素，并据此提出人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调性优化路径。研究方法：耦合协调度模型和探索性空间数据分析。研究结果：（1）2000—2019年各城市人口城镇化与土地城镇化水平均有一定程度的提升，2000—2010年人口城镇化超前于土地城镇化，2010—2019年人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化；人口城镇化和土地城镇化高值区集中在京津冀、山东半岛、长三角、珠三角等东部沿海地区及各省会城市。（2）人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合度与耦合协调度整体水平均有所上升，低值区域逐渐减少，高值区域有所增加，东部地区人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合度和耦合协调度高于中部和西部地区，京津冀、长三角和珠三角等地区以及各省会城市的耦合协调度始终保持较高水平并呈现出不断增强的趋势。 （3）近20年人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合协调度呈现显著的空间正相关，热点、冷点区域基本保持不变，东部地区冷点区域逐渐显现。（4）二元土地制度、城乡户籍制度、区位因素、经济增长和交通条件等因素是人口城镇化与土地城镇化耦合协调度空间分异格局形成的主要原因。研究结论：应通过国土空间规划，坚持以人为本，优化城市空间，制定差异化的地区发展政策，逐渐形成多层级、多中心城镇化格局，以促进人口城镇化与土地城镇化的正向协调持续发展，有效释放城镇化的发展潜力。

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics and Driving Factors of Coordinated Development between Population Urbanization and Land Urbanization in China

The purposes of this study are to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics and driving factors of the coordinated development of population urbanization and land urbanization in cities above prefecture-level administrative regions in China in the past 20 years, and to propose a coordinated optimization path for population urbanization and land urbanization. The research methods include coupling and coordination degree model as well as explorative analysis of spatial data. The result shows that: 1)the level of population urbanization and land urbanization in each city increased to a certain extent from 2000 to 2019. Land urbanization from 2000 to 2010 lagged behind population urbanization, and from 2010 to 2019, land urbanization exceeded population urbanization. Population urbanization and land urbanization with high-value areas were concentrated in the eastern coastal areas such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other provincial capitals. 2)The degree of coupling and coupling coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization increased, low-value areas gradually decreased, and high-value areas increased. The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree in the eastern region were higher than those in the central and western regions. The degree of coupling and coordination between the Delta and the Pearl River Delta and other provincial capital cities maintained a high level and showed an increasing trend. 3)The degree of coupling and coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization in the past 20 years showed a significant spatial positive correlation, hot spots and the cold spot area remained basically unchanged, and the cold spot area emerged gradually in the eastern region. 4)The dual land system, urban-rural household registration system, location factors, economic growth and traffic conditions were the factors for the formation of spatial differentiation pattern. In conclusion, based on the territorial space planning, people-oriented and urban space optimization, different development policies with a multi-level and multi-center urbanization pattern are expected to be formulated to promote the positive coordination of population urbanization and land urbanization.