土地抵押、银行信贷与金融风险:理论、实证与政策分析

研究目的:探讨土地抵押融资风险的识别标准、产生原因和防范措施。研究方法:数理分析与统计和计量分析。研究结果:(1)微观层面上,银行对贷款抵押率的选择和对未来土地价格变化的预期决定土地抵押融资风险的大小;(2)宏观层面上,土地资产价值的变化决定融资风险的大小,过量的土地供应、过快增长的土地价格在扩大信贷规模的同时加大了信贷风险;(3)目前中国土地抵押融资风险产生的直接原因是法律法规的欠缺,主要原因是政府转型的滞后和银行风险管理体制的不健全,而市场环境不完善起了推动作用。研究结论:需要从完善法律法规、加快政府改革、强化银行风险管理和推进市场建设等方面防范土地抵押融资风险。

Land Mortgage, Bank Loans and Financial Risks:Theoretical, Empirical and Policy Analysis

The purpose of the paper is to study the identification standard, causes and countermeasures of financial risks in land mortgage loans. Methods of mathematical, statistic and econometric analysis were employed. The results show that the selection of loan mortgage rate by the bank and its anticipation to future land price change determine the scale of financial risks from the perspective of micro aspect. The change of land asset value determines financial risks from the perspective of macro respect in which the excessive land supply and too fast rising of land price can increase financial risks while enlarging credits. At present, the financial risks of land mortgage loans directly result from the defective laws and regulations, mainly from the lag of government reform and the deficiency of risk management mechanism of banks, and from the driving of imperfect market. Countermeasures should be taken through perfecting laws, quickening the government reform, strengthening banks' risk management and perfecting the markets.