武汉市洪山区城乡结合部农地城市流转决策研究

研究目的：研究地块空间特征和土地流转收益的不确定性对城乡结合部农地城市流转决策的影响。研究方法：经济计量分析方法。研究结果：房地产市场的不确定性、样点周围建设用地比例、样点是否在建设用途分区内对流转决策有显著影响，坡度、地价等级、固定资产投资等变量对流转决策的影响不显著。研究结论：政府制定农地城市流转决策时，应谨慎选择时机，充分考虑土地利用决策的空间相关性，并做好农地城市流转决策收益与风险承担机制的创新。

Exploring the Factors that Affect the Decision of Farmland Conversion for Urban Land Use in the Peri-urban Area in Hongshan District| Wuhan

The purpose of this paper is to explore the influencing factors which affect the decision making on farmland conversion in peri-urban area, especially to examine the factors related to spatial characteristics of the converted land and the uncertain benefit of the conversion. Econometrics was employed in analysis. The results show that the uncertainty of real estate market, the ratio of construction land area to the total area around the land plot, and whether the sample plot is located in the planned construction zone have significant impacts on the conversion decision. Other factors, for instance, the parcel slope, land grade in the benchmark system and the fixed capital investment do not show any significant impacts on the farmland conversion decision in the peri-urban of Hongshan District. It is concluded that, the government should be cautious to decide when the land would better be converted, take the spatial characteristics of the converted land into consideration, and find reasonable mechanism to share the benefit and risk of farmland conversion.