供需系统视角下北京市集体土地建设租赁住房政策效果仿真研究

研究目的：基于系统论视角构建北京市集体土地建设租赁住房政策效果仿真模型，剖析政策运行影响机理，预测政策试点未来实施效果并寻找优化路径，以期形成可复制可参考试点经验。研究方法：运用系统动力学构建仿真模型模拟压力型、需求型、要素型、市场型4种情景下政策运行效果。研究结果：（1）从供给和需求两方面构建集体土地建设租赁住房政策效果仿真模型，供给侧包括政策供给子系统、项目供给子系统、土地供给子系统，需求侧为承租人需求子系统；（2）至2030年，北京市集体土地建设租赁住房土地供应量可以达到2 000 hm2左右，建设项目150个左右；（3）对政策效果的影响方面，政府压力因素是最主要正向的影响因素，其次为市场因素、承租人需求因素、土地供给因素。研究结论：加大投融资政策扶持，综合运用政策、市场、要素、需求等途径，激励市场主体参与积极性，保障集体土地建设租赁住房政策有效落实。

Simulation Research on the Effect of the Policy of Rental Housing Construction on Collective-owned Land in Beijing from the Perspective of Supply and Demand System

The purposes of this study are to develop the simulation model for the policy effect concerning the rental housing construction on collective-owned land in Beijing from the perspective of system theory, to analyze the influence mechanism of policy operation, to predict the future implementation status of the pilot areas and to explore the optimal path, in order to form the replicable and referable pilot experience. The research methods originated from system dynamics, which was used to build a simulation model to simulate the effect of policy operation under four scenarios: pressure type, demand type, factor type and market type. The results show that, the policy effect simulation model of rental housing construction on collective-owned land is developed from two aspects of supply and demand. The supply system includes policy supply subsystem, project supply subsystem and land supply subsystem, and the demand system is the tenant demand subsystem. By 2030, the land supply of collective-owned land for rental housing will reach 2000 hectares, and 150 projects will be built. In terms of the policy effect, government pressure is the most important positive factor, followed by market factor, tenant demand factor and land supply factor. In conclusion, the guarantee of the vitality and effectiveness of the policy of rental housing construction on collective-owned land is to increase the supply of supporting preferential policies, stimulate the participation of market subjects and effectively stimulate the market vitality, and comprehensively use policies, market, factors, demand and other ways to ensure the promotion of policies.