土地资源对中国经济的“增长阻尼”研究——基于改进的二级CES生产函数

研究目的:定量测度符合中国土地资源特点的"增长阻尼",为制定土地资源宏观调控目标提供指导。研究方法:构建改进的二级CES生产函数作为基础模型,并修正前提假设,使其更符合中国土地资源的特点。研究结果:土地资源约束对中国经济增长影响较大,中国现在每年的经济增长速度比在没有土地资源约束的情形下降低0.7512%。研究结论:有效贯彻和执行土地资源保护政策,加上技术进步和日益下降的土地份额,未来的中国经济仍将保持稳步增长态势。

Research on the “Growth Drag” of Chinese Economy Caused by Land Resource: Based on the Modified Two-Level CES Production Function

The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively measure the “growth drag” of Chinese economy that caused by the characteristics of land resource in China so as to provide guidelines for land use adjustment on macro level. Method employed in this paper is to use a two-level CES production function model, which is modified on the presumption and hypothesis in order to be in accordance with the practical characteristics of land resource in China. The results indicate that the constraint of land resource has strong impacts on economic growth in China, and currently the annual economic growth rate of China has been reduced by 0.7512% comparing with that if land resource input is not constrained. It is concluded that the future Chinese economy will maintain a growth momentum basing on effective implementation of land resource preservation policies, as well as technical improvement and the decreasing contribution of land input to the economy.