农户农林复合经营意愿影响因素分析

基于福建省6个县(市) 30个村300位农户的调查数据,运用二元Logistic回归模型识别影响农户农林复合经营意愿的因素,结果表明:耕地面积、项目支持对农户农林复合经营意愿具有显著的正向影响,而户主年龄、家庭劳动力人数却具有显著的负向影响。基于此,从农户特征、资源禀赋特征、技术特征、政府出台政策4个方面提出促进农林复合经营的政策建议:应培养新型职业农民,带动年龄较大户主转变观念,助力农林复合经营发展;规范和鼓励林地、耕地流转或联户经营,适度扩大土地经营规模,促进形成农林复合经营规模经济,推动农林复合经营产业化发展;通过项目支持建设示范基地,带动农户参与农林复合经营,促进示范基地健康有序发展,创新技术推广,推动科技成果转化;调整资金补贴,规范资金有效使用和统筹管理。

Analysis of Factors Affecting Farmers' Willingness to Participate in Agroforestry

⑴ Background——Agroforestry is widely practiced around the world. It is an effective way to gain forest ecological,economic and social benefits. At the same time,agroforestry is an effective way to achieve green development and increase farmers' income.⑵ Methods——In order to measure the main influencing factors of farmers' willingness to participate in agroforestry,the subjective probability of farmers' willingness to participate in agroforestry has two situations:"willing to participate"and"unwilling to participate". Farmers make the best choice on the basis of rational and comprehensive weighing of various influencing factors,which is a typical dual decision-making problem. Therefore,the Logistic model is used.⑶ Results——The analysis results show that the correlation coefficient of cultivated land area,project support,head of household and number of family laborers are 0. 098,0. 437,-0. 045 and-0. 168,respectively,indicating that the farmer owns the cultivated land area has a significant promotion effect,the project support has a certain degree of impact,the head of household has a significant negative impact,the number of household laborers has a certain degree of negative impact on farmers' willingness to participate in the agroforestry technology. Farmers most want the government to introduce policies for subsidies,followed by technology promotion and development of professional cooperatives,and origin protection is the most urgent policy demand for product supervision,so financial subsidies and protection of origin are the key.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The influence of the number of laborers in the family on the agroforestry is controversial. Whether it is caused by endogenous problems is an issue that should be considered in future research. Fund subsidy is the basic guarantee for the development of agroforestry. Project guidance and technology promotion are strong support for the development of agroforestry. Lack of financial subsidy,lack of project support,and lack of land resources have become major obstacles to the development of agroforestry.Based on this,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on promoting agroforestry from four aspects: farmer characteristics,resource endowment characteristics,technical characteristics,and policies issued by the government. From the perspective of farmers' characteristic vector,the rural population is aging,and the talents for rural development are in short supply. Especially,there is a shortage of new professional farmers who can promote technology,introduce projects and understand capital operation for the development of agroforestry. Farmers with older households have lower willingness to participate in agroforestry. Therefore,we should cultivate new professional farmers,promote older households to change their ideas,and help the development of agroforestry. From the perspective of resource endowment characteristics,we should standardize and encourage the transfer of forestland,cultivated land or joint operation,expand the scale of land management appropriately,promote the formation of a scale economy of agroforestry,and promote the industrialization of agroforestry. From the technical characteristics,strengthening the scientific and technological research and development of agroforestry and promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements in agroforestry are effective ways to improve the market base and competitiveness of agroforestry products. From the perspective of policies issued by the government,we should adjust fund subsidy to support the development of agroforestry. We should adjust the fund subsidy,implement the mode of "specialized projects + task list",and standardize the effective use and overall management of funds.