二叉树期权定价模式评估林业碳汇项目的价值

基于黑龙江省林业局和中国林业统计年鉴的数据,运用修正的Faustmann模型和二叉树期权定价方法分析黑龙江省黑河造林林区的碳汇价值及该项目的经济可行性。研究结果表明:经营成本负向影响项目的最终价值;碳汇价格和木材价格正向影响项目的最终价值;初始价值正向影响项目的最终价值;黑龙江省黑河造林林区项目具有较高的经济效益和生态效益。因此,相关部门应建立完善的碳汇交易市场,实施激励措施和制定林地产权制度。

Binary Tree Option Pricing Model Assess the Value of Forestry Carbon Sink Projects

⑴ Background——Global climate change has become an environmental problem recognized by the international community.All countries are taking active measures to deal with this change,and carbon sequestration can offset emissions of carbon dioxide and mitigate global climate change,so carbon sequestration have become an important part of the international climate conventions.Forest carbon sequestration refers to the activities of reducing deforestation and absorbing carbon dioxide to form carbon sequestration through afforestation and forest management.⑵ Methods——The data in this paper mainly come from Heilongjiang Forestry Statistical Bureau,China Forestry Statistical Yearbook and market survey data.Taking Heihe afforestation area in Heilongjiang Province as an example,this study used the modified Faustmann model to calculate the initial value of forest land.Then,based on the binary tree option pricing model,considering the influence of uncertainties,and under the condition of expanding the scale of operation during the project period.The present value of the expected value of the project is estimated,and then the economic feasibility of the development of forestry carbon sequestration in the region is obtained.⑶ Results——It is concluded that the expected value of the project is 19.261 48 billion yuan.This value is larger than the initial value of the project,so it is economically feasible to increase the investment amount and expand the operational scope of the project.Furthermore,the probability that the final value of the project is greater than its initial value is 63.14%.This shows that the operator is more likely to obtain income in the investment and operation of the project,and the risk of the project is relatively small.Moreover,operating cost negatively affects the final value of the project;Carbon sequestration price and timber price positively affect the final value of the project;The initial value positively affects the final value of the project.In addition,in the first stage of project management,the rise or fall of asset value has a completely different impact on the investment benefit of the project.Carbon sequestration value is an indispensable part of the value of forestry sequestration sink projects.Including carbon sequestration value increases the income of forestry owners and encourages farmers to participate in the development of green economy.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The realization of the value of carbon sequestration,firstly which need to establish a perfect carbon trading market,that is the basis of realizing the value of carbon sequestration.Secondly,as an important part of the realization of the value of carbon sequestration,the government should formulate the corresponding incentives,such as improving the subsidy standard of government forestry ecological benefits,expanding the sources of subsidy funds,etc.The realization of the value of carbon sequestration will also need to have a clear property right system,which clarifies the ownership of forestry to the households,that is,the privatization of forestry property rights.It will promote the optimized allocation of resources.And privatization not only effectively arouse the enthusiasm of farmers,but also contribute to the realization of the value of carbon sequestration on the whole.