中国碳市场交易价格的共同趋势特征研究

以碳交易价格为研究对象,利用2013年6月至2019年3月中国8个碳试点市场的碳交易价格数据,采用面板协整检验方法,从统一整合的视角挖掘国内碳交易价格的共同趋势特征。结果表明:在5%显著水平下,2或3个碳试点市场间的共同趋势特征较明显;4或5个碳试点市场间有一定的共同趋势特征;6个及以上碳试点市场间没有共同趋势。尽管8个碳试点市场交易价格差异较大,但是在全国碳市场统一趋势下,整体兼容性存在很大的改善空间。因此,为实现中国碳市场的衔接统一需要推进配额分配方案建设。碳市场交易需要完善碳交易价格机制,丰富碳交易品种和交易方式。碳市场建设需要推进碳试点过渡,健全相关法律政策体系,从而促进全国碳市场衔接。

Research on the Common Trend Characteristics of China's Carbon Market Transaction Price

⑴Background——Global warming has been the most serious environmental problem.For dealing with it,China has carried out eight carbon pilot markets successively and officially launched the construction of national carbon market.In 2020,national unified carbon markets will be a stage of rapid development,which means it is inevitable for carbon pilots to be a part of national carbon market.⑵Methods——By using web tech-reptile,the carbon emission quota daily transaction price data from June,2013 to March,2019 in China's eight carbon pilot trading web sites are obtained,and based on the panel co-integration test method,the common trend features of domestic carbon trading prices from the perspective of unified integration are explored.⑶Results——This study selects the carbon trading price data of China's eight carbon pilot markets from June 2013 to March 2019,taking the transaction price of the carbon emission quota spot day transaction as a variable and processing it according to Napierian logarithm.The R3.53 software was used to conduct the ADF test on the first-order difference of the carbon transaction price series to observe the stability of real data with respect to carbon emission trading in China.Then,based on Engle-Granger two-step method,the carbon transaction price of all carbon markets are respectively estimated and tested.Based on the vector error-correction model,the system equation error-correction model is further established,and then the maximum likelihood estimation is used to make co-integration tests of carbon transaction prices for various combinations of three markets,four markets,five markets,and six markets within the system.combined the inevitable trend of carbon market unification with the common trend features of carbon market transaction prices,the following conclusions can be drew:Under the 5%significant level,there are common trends in the two carbon markets,common trends are more obvious in three carbon markets.There are few common trends among the four carbon markets,what's more,There are only three obvious common trends in five carbon markets.And there is no common trend among six or more carbon markets,that is,no long-term Equilibrium relationship;although the price difference among the eight carbon markets is big,there is a large space for improvement in the overall compatibility under the environment of unified trend of the national carbon market.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——The gap between the economic development of the carbon pilots and the resource endowment causes a large gap between trading demand and price of the carbon emissions.Besides,this gap makes the common trend characteristics of some carbon pilots not distinct.However,there is a large space for improvement in overall compatibility as a result of all carbon pilots have a common framework.Therefore,in the special stage of coexistence of carbon pilots and unified carbon markets,policy makers in relevant departments must figure out the urgent factors in the process of establishing a national carbon market,which will make the country's carbon market come into a mature and stable state fast.For effectively connecting with national carbon market,the policy makers of relevant departments can start from the following three aspects:promoting the construction of quota allocation schemes;regulating the carbon price mechanism,enriching the types and trading methods of carbon trading;impelling the transition from carbon pilots to be a part of national carbon market and perfecting relevant legal and policy systems.