世界主要林产品贸易国林产品比较优势动态演变

采用显示性相对贸易比较优势指数测算世界主要林产品贸易国的林产品比较优势并运用马尔可夫链方法分析其动态演变特征。结果表明:世界主要林产品贸易国整体林产品比较优势的演变较为稳定,呈现收敛趋势;资源密集型林产品比较优势演变程度较高,以向弱比较优势演变为主;劳动密集型林产品比较优势演变程度最高,以比较优势减弱的趋势为主;资本技术密集型林产品比较优势演变程度最低,以比较优势增强的趋势为主。中国劳动密集型林产品具有比较优势,资源和资本技术密集型林产品不具有比较优势,但整体林产品比较优势呈现增强趋势。因此,中国提出培育林产品比较优势;提高林产品国际竞争力;促进林产品贸易高质量发展的建议。

Dynamic Evolution of Comparative Advantages of Forest Products in the World's Major Forest Products Trading Countries

⑴ Background——Promoting the high-quality development of trade and building a strong trade country have become an important part of China's formation of a new pattern of comprehensive opening up and the construction of a modern economic system.And forest products trade is an important part of international trade.China has become a major forest product trade country in the world,but the scale of China's forest products trade is large but the quality is not strong.⑵ Methods——The data comes from the United Nations commodity trade database,and the articles are selected from 2000-2017 import and export trade data of forest products and all products in various countries,and import and export trade data of world forest products and all products.The explicitly comparative advantage index of the world's main forest products trading countries is used to measure the overall and different types of forest products comparative advantage,and Markov chain method is used to analyze their dynamic evolution characteristics.⑶ Results——The evolution of the overall comparative advantage of forest products in the major trading countries of forest products is relatively stable,but the evolution of comparative advantage of different types of forest products is various in different countries.First of all,the comparative advantage of labor-intensive forest products shows a weakening trend.As capital technology has become increasingly important,the comparative advantage of capital-technology-intensive forest products shows an increasing trend of evolution.Secondly,the forest products of the strong traditional forest products trading powers remain competitive,and the future development of the emerging forest products trading countries should not be underestimated.The evolution of the comparative advantages of the overall,resource and capital technology-intensive forest products comparative advantage in Sweden and Finland and other countries has remained in the comparative advantage range,and the overall comparative advantage of forest products in Vietnam and Indonesia is increasing,and the comparative advantages of resource and labor-intensive forest products are strong.Finally,the comparative advantage of China's overall forest products is still at a relatively low level among the world's major forest product trading countries.Although the overall comparative advantage is increasing,its competitiveness is still weak.At present,only labor-intensive forest products have comparative advantages and the competitiveness is strong,while resources and capital technology-intensive forest products do not have comparative advantage at all.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——First,it's necessary to deepen international economic and trade cooperation in forest products for forming complementary advantages in forest products.Second,it's advised to lay a solid foundation for the development and production of forest products and provide support for improving the competitiveness of forest products.Third,it's favorable to promote the upgrading of forest products and the high-quality development of forest products trade.On the basis of maintaining the comparative advantages of the original labor-intensive forest products,China also needs to cultivate the comparative advantages of new capital technology-intensive forest products.