碳汇目标下竹林经营经济效益评价与差异分析

基于《竹林经营碳汇项目方法学》和实地调研数据,构建新的项目经济效益评价模型,对遂昌县竹林经营碳汇项目进行经济效益定量评估,并分析不同经营目标和不同经营措施下竹林经营碳汇项目净现值的差异及影响因素。结果表明:遂昌县在30年竹林经营碳汇项目运行周期内的净现值为8.63亿元,相比于传统经营提高了98.29%;在基线水平下,以碳汇经营为目标提高林分胸径的经营措施更有利于提高经济效益;影响竹林经营碳汇项目净现值的重要因素敏感程度从大到小依次为竹材价格、劳动力价格、竹笋价格、碳汇价格。最后,为实现森林增汇目标从加强碳汇项目宣传和提高林农经营技术等方面提出了相关建议。

Economic Benefit Evaluation and Difference Analysis of Bamboo Forest Management under Carbon Sequestration Target

⑴Background——In the process of bamboo forest management,the different management objectives and modes have a great impact on the output of traditional bamboo products and the emission reduction of project,which results in the difference of economic benefits.⑵Methods——In 2017,a questionnaire survey is conducted to 140 people to obtain field survey data.Considering all the input and output during the operation of the project,a new economic benefit evaluation model of the project is established,and the differences among net present value of the project and its influencing factors under different management objectives and modes are further analyzed.⑶Results——In Suichang County,the net present value of the carbon sequestration project of bamboo forest management in 30 years is 862.87 million yuan,which is 98.29%higher than that of the traditional bamboo forest management.Compared with the management modes of raising the bamboo density target,the NPV of the project brought by the management measures of raising the bamboo diameter target is higher.The change of NPV caused by the change of bamboo DBH is 259.13 million yuan,with a growth rate of 59.55%.The net present value of the project changes by 67.08 million yuan due to the change of bamboo density,with an increase rate of 15.41%.Furthermore,increasing the DBH of bamboo is conducive to the increase of farmers'income in the main production areas of bamboo forest.When the prices of carbon sequestration,bamboo timber and bamboo shoot all increase by 50%,the net present value of the project increased by 2.16%,58.63%and 9.68%respectively.And when the labor price increases by 50%,the net present value of the project decreased by 13.50%.The sensitivity of NPV of carbon sequestration project to each factor is in the order of bamboo price,labor price,bamboo shoot price,carbon sequestration price.What's more,scientific management mode of bamboo forest under the carbon sequestration target is conducive to the improvement of bamboo quality,while the price of carbon sequestration has a larger space to rise,so there is a huge potential for the benefit improvement of carbon sequestration project of bamboo forest management.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——The net present value of bamboo forest management with carbon sink management as the target is much higher than that of traditionally managed bamboo forests.Management measures to increase the DBH of the forest stand will bring greater economic benefits to bamboo forest management.Because the development of carbon sequestration project about bamboo forest management not only brings additional carbon sequestration income,but also greatly improves the output of bamboo timer and bamboo shoots.Therefore,the government should encourage the active development of carbon sequestration project of bamboo forest management,and improve the cognition of forest farmers in the main production area of bamboo forest to carbon sequestration project.In addition,the economic benefits of carbon sequestration project will be affected by two different carbon sequestration management measures:increasing the diameter at breast height of bamboo or the density of vertical bamboo,and the net present value of carbon sequestration project is greatly affected by the prices of bamboo and bamboo shoots.Therefore,it is necessary to actively organize technical training to help farmers master the carbon sequestration measures.