中国省域森林碳汇效率演进分析

基于1999—2018年的林业发展数据,采用森林蓄积量扩展法和DEA-Malmquist法实证分析了中国29个省(市、区)森林碳汇静态效率和动态演进过程。结果表明:1999—2018年中国森林碳汇总量呈增长趋势;从静态方面看,中国碳汇效率总体较低,区域间差异大,碳汇效率的空间分布与各省(市、区)经济发展水平之间存在一定的反向关联性,纯技术效率是制约综合效率增长的主要因素;从动态方面看,Malmquist生产指数呈U型趋势发展,技术进步指数和技术效率变化指数对Malmquist生产指数的驱动作用不同。因此,相关部门要建立健全林业技术推广体系;提高森林碳汇的科技水平;完善产权激励机制;加快构建碳交易市场;促进林业资源合理配置;加强对森林资源的保护;加快推进集体林权制度改革。

Analysis on the Evolution of Provincial Forest Carbon Sequestration Efficiency in China

(1)Background——China is rich in forest resources. If the forest resources are utilized fully and the goal of carbon sequestration is achieved efficiently,it will make a great contribution to the sustainable development.(2)Methods——Based on the forest data of 29 provinces in China from 1999 to 2018,this paper collects and collates indicators such as investment in forestry fixed assets,forestry system practitioners,forest areas and forest stocks. The forest volume method is used to measure forest carbon sequestration. Forest fixed asset investment,forestry system practitioners and forest area is used as input indicators,and forest carbon sequestration is used as output indicators. The DEA-Malmquist index method is used to measure the static efficiency of forest carbon sequestration and conduct a dynamic analysis.(3)Results——During 2014-2018,the forest carbon sequestration in China is 17. 2157 Pg,1. 497 times of that during 1999-2003. The remarkable achievements are inseparable from a series of forestry policies implemented in China. The spatial distribution pattern of forest carbon sequestration in each province is quite different,mainly concentrate in the northeast and southwest regions,accounting for 51. 73% of the forest carbon sequestration in China. With the static efficiency of forest carbon sequestration evaluated,it is found that forest carbon sequestration efficiencies are quite different in different provinces. In addition,the average efficiencies of1999-2003,2004-2008,2009-2013 and 2014-2018 are 0. 466,0. 461,0. 440 and 0. 480 respectively,which indicates that the forest carbon sequestration efficiency is invalid and inefficient. Besides,the average scale efficiency is 0. 8327 while the variance is 0. 0685,which indicates that the scale efficiency of China is relatively uniform. When evaluating the dynamics of forest carbon sequestration efficiency,it is found that the technical efficiency is the main driving force of Malmquist production index,and technical efficiency and technical progress are the main sources of Malmquist production index growth. during 2014-2018,the contribution rate of technological progress to Malmquist production index reach 7. 9%,and the contribution rate of technological efficiency reach 10. 8%. There is regional heterogeneity in the dynamic evolution of forest carbon sequestration efficiency. The main reason for the regional heterogeneity of Malmquist production index is the difference in forestry development levels,economic development status and forest resource conditions.(4)Conclusions and Discussions——The amount of forest carbon sequestration in China shows an increasing trend during 1999-2018. From the static aspect,the carbon sequestration efficiency is low,and the regional differences are large. There is a reverse correlation between the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration efficiency and the economic development level of each province. The pure technical efficiency is generally low,which is the main factor limiting the comprehensive efficiency. From the dynamic aspect, Malmquist index shows a u-shaped trend. Therefore,the following suggestions are put forward: The first is to establish and improve the forestry technology promotion system to realize the effective docking between the supply and demand of forestry technology. And the second one is to improve the corresponding incentive system,clarify the technical property,and promote the enthusiasm of forestry technicians in research and development. The next one is to promote the rational allocation of forestry resources and improve the management level. And the last one is accelerating the construction of a carbon trading market. The construction of carbon trading market can reduce the cost of searching information for carbon sequestration,link the carbon sequestration suppliers and demanders,and mobilize the enthusiasm of forestry producers and operators to plant carbon sequestration forest.