林业产业上市公司成长性评价研究

以2012年12月31日之前在沪深A股上市的30家林业上市公司作为研究对象,收集2012—2018年的面板数据,从盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力和发展能力这4个方面构建成长性评价指标体系,运用因子分析法对林业产业上市公司的成长性进行评价研究。结果表明:30家林业上市公司之间的成长性差异显著,整体成长性较低,大部分企业存在追逐短期盈利的现象;林业产业整体的发展能力过于薄弱;经营不同业务的林业上市公司之间成长性存在较大差异。因此,从建立完善的成本控制管理体系、拓宽融资渠道、加速产业转型等方面提出提升和优化林业产业上市公司成长性的建议。

Research on the Growth Evaluation of Forestry Industry Companies Based on Factor Analysis

(1)Background——In 2018,the total output value of the forestry industry has reached 7. 33 trillion yuan,which has been 22 times higher than that value of 318. 77 billion yuan in 2000. As a result,it is necessary to study the growth of the forestry industry,for which presents a huge development space and growth potential.(2)Methods——The financial data of 30 listed forestry companies from 2012 to 2018 are collected,and the main financial indicators affecting the growth of the companies are found by using factor analysis method,among which,profitability factor,solvency factor,operation factor and development factor are selected to construct the growth evaluation index system.(3)Results——From the result of factor analysis,the contribution of sample explanatory capacity to growth is from high to low in order of profitability,solvency,operation ability and development ability,among which the variance contribution rate of profitability is the highest. The result shows that the listed forestry companies have the strongest perception of net operating interest rate and net profit margin of total assets. In addition,from the perspective of the growth comprehensive score,only 15 of the 30 listed forestry companies have a growth score greater than zero,accounting for half of the total sample,which indicates that the growth of listed forestry companies is on the low side as a whole,and the maximum and minimum difference/maximum value of growth= 1. 745,indicating that the growth differences between different companies are large and unbalanced. In the aspect of solvency ability,there are 9 positive listed companies,accounting for 30% of the sample number,12 with a positive operating capacity factor score,accounting for 40% of the total sample number,and 8 with a positive development capacity score,accounting for only 26% of the total sample number. Finally,The companies with a positive solvency factor,operating capacity factor and development capacity factor score are less than half of the total sample number,indicating that most of the forestry listed companies have poor growth. On the other hand,from the perspective of risk,44% of the companies are at significant risk stage,20% are at high risk stage,and 17% are at serious risk stage.(4)Conclusions and Discussions——First of all,for companies with weak profitability,it is necessary to establish a sound cost control system,strengthen cost management and product quality with the strong support of the national"Belt and Road"and"Internet plus"strategy. In addition,it is advisable to make full use of the preferential forestry policies given by the government and guide the development of products to the direction of intensive processing. Secondly,for companies with relatively weak solvency,enterprises need to adjust the term structure of liabilities. Through the establishment of a scientific financial early warning mechanism,reasonable arrangement of the source and term structure of liabilities,financing channels need to be diversified. Finally,for companies with poor development capacity,it is necessary to consider industrial transformation,change the traditional forest product manufacturing,actively transform from labor-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry,so as to form a reasonable industrial layout,and gradually reduce the dependence on forest resources.Moreover,efforts should be made to develop the forestry economy and the forestry medicine industry,and the forest recreation service and the forest health service should be taken as the priority objects to consolidate the non-wood forestry industry,cultivate the forest food industry,promote the industrial upgrading,shift the industrial focus to the forest tourism direction,and form the unique ecological tourism.