基于系统动力学的东北国有林区低碳政策模拟研究

结合东北国有林区的实际情况及特色资源,在分析低碳经济复杂系统结构及动态反馈关系的基础上,建立东北国有林区低碳经济系统动力学模型。通过调整三次产业比例、提高森林碳汇、增加非化石能源比例、提高能源利用率、提高人口素质五次政策模拟,根据仿真模拟结果得出结论:东北国有林区发展低碳经济应加快产业结构调整,大力发展第三产业;提高森林蓄积量和森林质量,增强森林碳汇功能;优化能源结构,增加非石化能源比例;大力发展科技,提高能源利用率;加大教育投入,提高人口素质。

Simulation Study of Northeast State-Owned Forest Low Carbon Policy Based on System Dynamics

Based on the analysis of the relations between the complex low-carbon economy system and dynamic feedback,taking the specific situation and the characteristic resources of state-owned forest in Northeast into account,the low-carbon economy system dynamics modeling of state-owned forest in Northeast is established and simulation is carried out.By adjusting the structure of the three industries,improving the stocking volume growth,increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy,improving energy utilization and improving the quality of the population to implement the simulation of policy.According to the simulation results concluded:Northeast state-owned forest region develop low-carbon economy need to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure,develop the tertiary industry; improve the amount of forest and forest quality,increase forest carbon sink function; increase science and technology investment,improve energy utilization; increase input in education,improve the quality of the population.