全球经常项目失衡影响因素的实证研究

近年来,全球经常项目失衡问题成为经济研究者、国际机构和各国中央银行经济学家以及商务经济研究报告竞相研究的热点问题。本文利用全球范围内56个国家或地区1980年至2005年的数据,针对影响经常项目的多种因素进行实证研究,结果表明经常项目与政府财政收支、资本形成率以及开放程度等因素密切相关。在当前全球经济增速放缓的形势下,只有通过有效的国际经济政策协调才能促进全球经常项目失衡问题的有序解决。

An Empirical Analysis of Factors Influencing the Global Current Account Imbalances

Recently the global current account imbalances have been a hot issue attracting enormous amount of study in the economics academia, among the economists from international organizations and central banks, and in business economic research reports. This paper makes empirical studies on many factors influencing current account by using data from 56 countries or regions from 1980 to 2005. The results show that the current account balance is related with such variables as government revenue and expenditure, capital formation rate and openness. Under the current slowdown of the world economy, the issue of current account imbalance can only be addressed through effective coordination of international economic policies.